When War Hits Home: Cost of Living, Fire Risk and What Comes Next

Vithyaa Thavapalan BSc, MSc, GradDipFI, IAAI-FIT, NAFI-CFEI

Founder and Forensic Fire Investigator - Forensic Origin and Cause Investigations

The war involving Israel, the United States and Iran is being discussed largely through a geopolitical lens, but from my perspective, its effects are having rippling effects globally. Conflicts like this have a way of filtering into everyday life through rising fuel prices, disrupted supply chains, increased freight costs and broader economic instability. In practical terms, that means more pressure on households, more pressure on businesses, and more pressure on already strained cost-of-living conditions.

For those of us working in fire investigation, that broader context matters.

When financial pressure builds, it begins to influence behaviour, decision-making and, in some cases, desperation. That is why I believe periods like this create the conditions for an increase in deliberate fires and, in turn, an increase in fraudulent insurance claims.

This is not a new pattern. We saw similar concerns emerge during the uncertainty surrounding COVID and before my career even started, back in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Financial stress, business disruption and general instability created an environment where suspicious fires and questionable claims became a very real concern. Whenever people feel cornered financially, there will always be some who look for unlawful ways to escape that pressure. In my view, we are likely to see that pattern again.

That does not mean every fire that occurs during a difficult economic period should be treated with suspicion. It does, however, mean that investigators need to remain aware of the wider environment in which a fire occurs. Cost of living pressures, debt, reduced business turnover and uncertainty about the future can all become relevant background factors. They may not prove cause, but they can help explain motive.

For me, this is where the discipline of fire investigation becomes most important. In times of uncertainty, it is easy for assumptions to creep in. But our role is not to speculate. Our role is to examine the evidence, test our hypotheses, and reach conclusions supported by fact. NFPA 921 is clear that fire investigation must be grounded in a systematic approach and the scientific method. That means developing hypotheses from the data, testing them against the available evidence, and discarding what cannot be supported.

That principle becomes even more important when there is external pressure to explain a loss quickly. Investigators may be dealing with insurers, legal teams, owners, and other stakeholders, all of whom want answers. But motive is not cause, suspicion is not proof, and economic pressure alone is not evidence of an incendiary fire. The wider context should inform our thinking, not replace our methodology.

At the same time, I do think we need to be realistic about what is coming. When global events place additional pressure on the cost of living, the downstream consequences rarely extend beyond economics. They often show up in claims trends, in suspicious circumstances, and in the number of fires where intent becomes a legitimate line of inquiry. From my perspective, this is one of the clearest ways international conflict becomes local.

Fire does not occur in a vacuum. It sits at the intersection of people, pressure and circumstance. That is why I believe the current conflict is relevant to our profession, even from a distance. It is not simply about war overseas. It is about how instability shapes behaviour here at home, and how that may influence the fires we investigate in the months ahead.

As investigators, our job is to stay evidence-based and methodical no matter what is happening around us. But we should also pay attention to the conditions that make deliberate fire-setting and fraudulent claims more likely. In my view, the pressure is building, and we would be naive to think we will not see its effects.