Australia’s 2025–26 Bushfire Season: Where we’re at by mid-December (and what’s next)

First, we pay our respects to the firefighters who have died this season, and to their families, crews and communities. A 59-year-old NSW firefighter was killed by a falling tree near Bulahdelah in early December an awful reminder of the risks behind every “contained” headline [1].

The season has opened fast and unevenly, exactly what pre-season outlooks warned. In the first week of December, NSW ran dozens of bush and grass fires at once, with homes destroyed on the Central Coast (Koolewong) and near Bulahdelah; disaster assistance was activated for multiple LGAs [2]. In Tasmania, the Dolphin Sands fire destroyed at least 19 homes and damaged more, with access restrictions in place while dangerous trees and power infrastructure were made safe [3]. Cooler changes briefly eased some warnings, but the whiplash between “watch and act” and “all clear” shows how quickly conditions flip.

Climate drivers are stacking the deck for more rapid swings. The Bureau’s December–February outlook points to a hot summer with very warm nights nationally; spring was warmer than average across much of Australia and spring rainfall was below average in parts of the south-east mainland. Warm nights matter operationally but they limit overnight humidity recovery and shrink the window to secure lines or complete mitigation burns. Expect more “spike days” when heat, wind and low humidity align [4].

AFAC’s Seasonal Bushfire Outlook (Summer 2025–26) remains the planning compass. It flags heightened risk in western and southern WA, parts of central-northern NSW, and large areas of Victoria (south-west, western, central and north-central districts plus south-west Gippsland) as we head deeper into summer. A “normal” rating elsewhere still allows for dangerous fires on the wrong day, as Tasmania’s early losses prove the point [5].

State by state, the short operational read is consistent with those signals. NSW/ACT: a later start followed by a grass-fire ramp; heavy growth from earlier wet periods is curing, driving long, fast head fires and short-notice evacuations (as seen on the Central Coast and Mid North Coast) [2,6]. Victoria: long-term rainfall deficits keep south-west, central/north-central and south-west Gippsland on watch for lightning-triggered runs on hot, windy changes through December–January [5,7]. Western Australia: west and south-west WA are primed for repeat spike days as heat and wind build [5]. Queensland: scattered grass/vegetation fires escalate on hot, windy afternoons as curing advances (consistent with the national outlook) [4]. Tasmania: the official outlook may be “normal,” but Dolphin Sands shows a single dry, windy day can still cause major loss [3].

What to expect over the next 4–6 weeks: (1) a two-speed season, WA/SA/Vic likely to see frequent spike days, while NSW/QLD build toward stronger grass-fire windows into late December and January; (2) warm nights trimming suppression/mitigation opportunities; and (3) lightning + wind over cured fuels staying the classic trigger-and-spread combo for big runs in Vic and WA. Plan to the windows, not the calendar: align crews, public messaging and investigations so you’re ready to move when the Fire Danger Rating steps up and winds swing [4,5,7].

References

[1] Associated Press. “Firefighter killed as bushfires burn in New South Wales; homes lost in Tasmania and NSW.” (Early Dec 2025).

[2] The Guardian Australia. “NSW bushfires: homes destroyed at Koolewong and Bulahdelah; disaster assistance activated.” (Early Dec 2025).

[3] Pulse Tasmania / ABC Tasmania. “Dolphin Sands bushfire: 19 homes destroyed, further damage confirmed; access restrictions and hazards.” (Early–Mid Dec 2025).

[4] Bureau of Meteorology (Australia). “Long-range climate outlook, December 2025 – February 2026: hotter than average with very warm nights; spring warmth and SE rainfall deficits.” (Issued late Nov/early Dec 2025).

[5] AFAC (Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council). “Seasonal Bushfire Outlook: Summer 2025–26.” (Released late Nov 2025).

[6] NSW Rural Fire Service. “2025–26 Fire Season Statement to Parliament: later onset; escalating grass-fire potential; tight hazard-reduction windows.” (Nov 2025).

[7] Emergency Management Victoria / CFA Victoria. “Summer outlook updates: elevated risk for south-west, western, central/north-central and south-west Gippsland; lightning and wind change risk.” (Nov–Dec 2025).